Why the Exchange Rate Is Surging
The sharp rise in the exchange rate is not accidental.
It is the result of expanding fiscal deficits, structurally low growth, a regulation-heavy business environment, and an uncertain external trade strategy.


Capital Flows Follow Confidence
In an economy where capital and companies no longer want to stay, a weakening currency is not a surprise—it is an inevitable outcome.


“

Managing” the Exchange Rate Misses the Point
The very idea of suppressing the exchange rate through administrative measures ignores the root of the problem.
Trying to control the outcome without fixing the underlying causes is unsustainable.


A More Alarming Signal: The Disconnect Between Exchange rate and Equities
The value of the Korean won is plunging, yet the domestic stock market is overheating.
Is flooding the market with liquidity and forcibly pushing the KOSPI to 5,000 really a success?


Stock Gains Without Structural Reform Come at a Cost
The rise of stock price without improvement in the constitution of our economy as a whole will  have  eventually a greater side effect and adversely affect the over all economy.


What Is Needed Now

<ul class="ul1" style="list-style-type: disc; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto;"><li class="li1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-size: 17.4px; line-height: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant- normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal;">A more sophisticated coordination between fiscal and monetary policy</li><li class="li1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-size: 17.4px; line-height: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant- normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal;">A meaningful strengthening of the foreign exchange safety net</li><li class="li1" style="font-stretch: normal; font-size: 17.4px; line-height: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant- normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-variation-settings: normal;">Above all, fundamental structural reforms that restore confidence and make Korea a place where capital and companies want to invest again</li></ul>



환율이 치솟는 이유 =

재정적자 확대, 구조화된 저성장, 규제 중심의 기업 환경, 불확실한 대외 통상 전략


자본과 기업이 머물고 싶지 않은 경제 상황에서 통화 가치가 약해지는 것은 당연한 결과


환율을 ‘관리’로 눌러보겠다는 발상 자체가 문제의 본질을 외면하는 것


더 큰 문제는 환율과 주가와 따로 논다.

원화에 대한 가치는 급락하는데 국내 증시는 불타고 있다.

돈을 퍼붓고 쏟아서 무작정 코스피 5000만 만들면 되는 것인가


우리 경제 전반의 체질 개선 없는 주가 상승은 결국 더 큰 부작용으로 경제 전반에 악영향을 미칠 것


지금 필요한 것=

재정과 통화정책의 정교한 조합,

외환 안전망의 실질적 강화,

그리고 무엇보다 기업과 자본이 다시 한국을 믿고 투자할 수 있도록 경제의 체질을 근본부터 바꾸는 일