Either way, the market is now checking off all the touchy-feely characteristics of a major bubble. The most impressive features are the intensity and enthusiasm of bulls, the breadth of coverage of stocks and the market, and, above all, the rising hostility toward bears. In 1929, to be a bear was to risk physical attack and guarantee character assassination. For us, 1999 was the only experience we have had of clients reacting as if we were deliberately and maliciously depriving them of gains. In comparison, 2008 was nothing. But in the last few months the hostile tone has been rapidly ratcheting up. The irony for bears though is that it’s exactly what we want to hear. It’s a classic precursor of the ultimate break; together with stocks rising, not for their fundamentals, but simply because they are rising.


https://www.gmo.com/americas/research-library/waiting-for-the-last-dance/



한번 읽어보길 추천함


베어들에 대한 적대심은 버블의 끝에 다가옴을 의미할 뿐임.


1929년 버블 붕괴 직전, 베어가 되는 것은 물리적 공격의 위험과 인격적 살해를 감수해야 했음.


2000년 버블 붕괴 직전, 고객들로부터 자신들의 수익을 의도적으로 빼앗고 있는게 아닌가 하는 항의가 빗발쳤다함.




베어들에 대한 적대심이 강해지고 상승에 대한 확신 편향이 심해질수록 버블은 그 끝에 가까워졌다는 것임.





자신한테 직접 물어보기를 바람.


내 인생에서 이렇게 많은 리스크를 짊어지고 도박을 한적이 있는지.


내가하는건 일생에 다시 안올 기회를 잡기 위한 도박인지 투자인지.