pivot์€ ๋ฐ”๋‚ธ ํŠธ๋ทฐ ์ฐจํŠธ ๊ธฐ๋ณธ ์ง€ํ‘œ๋กœ๋„ ์žˆ์–ด์„œ


์‰ฝ๊ฒŒ ์“ธ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Œ ๋ฐ์ผ๋ฆฌ๋‚˜ ์œ„ํด๋ฆฌ๋กœ ์„ค์ •ํ•ด๋†“๊ณ  ์“ฐ๋ฉด ์ข‹์Œ


๋‚œ pivot ๋ฐ์ผ๋ฆฌ๋ž‘ ์œ„ํด๋ฆฌ 2๊ฐœ ๋‹ค์”€ ๋ฐ”๋‚ธ๊บผ๋Š” ์ œํ•œ์ด ์—†์–ด์„œ ์ข‹์•„


์ง€์ง€ ์ €ํ•ญ ๋ ˆ๋ฒจ์ด๋ผ ๋ณด๋ฉด ๋˜๋Š”๋ฐ ์›์›จ์ด ๋‚˜์˜ค๋ฉด ์œ„ํด๋ฆฌ ๋ผ์ธ์—์„œ ์ง€์ง€ ์ €ํ•ญ ๋ฐ›๋Š” ๊ฒฝ์šฐ๊ฐ€ ๋งŽ์Œ


๋ฌผ๋ก  ๋ฌด์กฐ๊ฑด ๋งž์ง„ ์•Š์ง€ ๋‹ค ๋งž์œผ๋ฉด ๋‹ค ๋•Œ๋ถ€์ž ๋์„ํ…Œ๋‹ˆ


์ง€์ง€ ์ €ํ•ญ๋ ˆ๋ฒจ์—์„œ ์›€์ง์ด๋‹ค๊ฐ€ ํ•˜์ดํ‚จ์บ”๋“ค์ด ๋ฐ”๋€๋‹ค๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ์บ”๋“ค ๋ชจ์–‘์„ ๋ณธ๋‹ค๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜๋Ÿ‰์„ ๋ณธ๋‹ค๋˜๊ฐ€ ํ•˜๋Š” ์ž๊ธฐ๋งŒ์˜ ๊ธฐ๋ฒ•์ด ๋” ๋ถ™์œผ๋ฉด ์ข‹๊ฒ ์ง€


Murrey Math๋Š” ํŠธ๋ทฐ์—์„œ ์ฐพ์•„๋ณด๋ฉด ์ปค๋ฎค๋‹ˆํ‹ฐ ์ง€ํ‘œ๋กœ ์žˆ์Œ


๋ง๋„ ์•ˆ๋˜๋Š” ์ž๋ฆฌ์—์„œ ์—ญ์ถ”์„ธ ์žก๋Š” ๊ฒƒ๋ณด๋‹ค๋Š” ํƒ€์  ์žก๊ธฐ์—” ๋” ๊ดœ์ฐฎ์Œย 


์ง€ํ”ผํ‹ฐ ์„ค๋ช… ๋ถ™์—ฌ์ค„๊ฒŒ



๋จธ๋ ˆ์ด ๋งค์Šค(Murrey Math)๋ž€?

๋จธ๋ ˆ์ด ๋งค์Šค(Murrey Math)๋Š” T. Hening Murrey๊ฐ€ ๊ฐœ๋ฐœํ•œ ๊ธฐ์ˆ ์  ๋ถ„์„ ๋„๊ตฌ๋กœ, ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์›€์ง์ž„์„ 8๋“ฑ๋ถ„ํ•œ ์ง€์ง€ ๋ฐ ์ €ํ•ญ ๋ ˆ๋ฒจ์„ ํ™œ์šฉํ•˜์—ฌ ๋งค๋งค ์ „๋žต์„ ์„ธ์šฐ๋Š” ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ฐ€ํŠธ๋„ˆ ์ด๋ก ์„ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์œผ๋กœ ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ, ๊ณ„์‚ฐ๋ฒ•์ด ๋” ๊ฐ„๋‹จํ•˜๊ณ  ์ง๊ด€์ ์ธ ๊ฒƒ์ด ํŠน์ง•์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

1. ๋จธ๋ ˆ์ด ๋งค์Šค ์ฃผ์š” ๊ฐœ๋…

๋จธ๋ ˆ์ด ๋งค์Šค๋Š” ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ๋ฒ”์œ„๋ฅผ 9๊ฐœ ์ฃผ์š” ๋ ˆ๋ฒจ๋กœ ๋‚˜๋ˆ„๊ณ , ๊ฐ ๋ ˆ๋ฒจ์ด ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์˜๋ฏธ๋ฅผ ๊ฐ€์ง€๋„๋ก ์ •์˜ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

+ ๊ธฐ๋ณธ์ ์ธ 9๊ฐœ ๋ ˆ๋ฒจ
๋ ˆ๋ฒจ์˜๋ฏธ
[8/8] (์ตœ๊ณ  ์ €ํ•ญ์„ )๊ฐ•๋ ฅํ•œ ์ €ํ•ญ, ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ์ด ๋ŒํŒŒํ•˜๋ฉด ๊ฐ•ํ•œ ์ƒ์Šน ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ
[7/8] (์•ฝํ•œ ์ €ํ•ญ์„ )๊ฐ•ํ•œ ์ €ํ•ญ์ด์ง€๋งŒ ๋ŒํŒŒ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ ์žˆ์Œ
[6/8] (์ค‘๊ฐ„ ์ €ํ•ญ์„ )์ค‘๊ฐ„ ๊ฐ•๋„์˜ ์ €ํ•ญ, ๋ฐ˜๋“ฑ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ ์žˆ์Œ
[5/8] (๊ฐ•ํ•œ ์ง€์ง€์„ )๋งค์šฐ ๊ฐ•ํ•œ ์ง€์ง€์„ , ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ์ด ํ•˜๋ฝํ•˜๋ฉด ๋ฐ˜๋“ฑ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์ด ๋†’์Œ
[4/8] (์ค‘์‹ฌ์„ )๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ์ด ์ž์ฃผ ๋จธ๋ฌด๋ฅด๋Š” ๊ท ํ˜•์  (๋งค์ˆ˜/๋งค๋„ ๊ท ํ˜•)
[3/8] (์•ฝํ•œ ์ง€์ง€์„ )๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ์ด ๋‚ด๋ ค์˜ฌ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ ๋ฐ˜๋“ฑ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ๊ฐ•ํ•œ ์ง€์ง€๋Š” ์•„๋‹˜
[2/8] (์ค‘๊ฐ„ ์ง€์ง€์„ )์ค‘๊ฐ„ ๊ฐ•๋„์˜ ์ง€์ง€์„ 
[1/8] (์•ฝํ•œ ์ง€์ง€์„ )์•ฝํ•œ ์ง€์ง€, ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ์ด ์‰ฝ๊ฒŒ ๋ŒํŒŒํ•  ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ ์žˆ์Œ
[0/8] (์ตœ๊ฐ•ํ•œ ์ง€์ง€์„ )๋งค์šฐ ๊ฐ•ํ•œ ์ง€์ง€, ์ดํƒˆํ•˜๋ฉด ๊ฐ•ํ•œ ํ•˜๋ฝ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ ์žˆ์Œ

์ด ์™ธ์—๋„ -3/8, +3/8 ๋“ฑ ์ถ”๊ฐ€์ ์ธ ํ™•์žฅ ๋ ˆ๋ฒจ์ด ์กด์žฌํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

2. ๋จธ๋ ˆ์ด ๋งค์Šค ๋ ˆ๋ฒจ ๊ณ„์‚ฐ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•

๋จธ๋ ˆ์ด ๋งค์Šค๋Š” ํŠน์ • ๊ธฐ๊ฐ„ ๋™์•ˆ์˜ ์ตœ๊ณ ๊ฐ€์™€ ์ตœ์ €๊ฐ€๋ฅผ ๊ธฐ์ค€์œผ๋กœ 8๊ฐœ์˜ ๋ ˆ๋ฒจ์„ ์„ค์ •ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

  1. ํŠน์ • ๊ธฐ๊ฐ„(๋ณดํ†ต 64์บ”๋“ค) ๋™์•ˆ์˜ ์ตœ๊ณ ๊ฐ€(High)์™€ ์ตœ์ €๊ฐ€(Low)๋ฅผ ์ฐพ์Œ
  2. ์ด ๋ฒ”์œ„๋ฅผ 8๋“ฑ๋ถ„ํ•˜์—ฌ ์ฃผ์š” ์ง€์ง€/์ €ํ•ญ ๋ ˆ๋ฒจ ์ƒ์„ฑ
  3. ๊ฐ ๋ ˆ๋ฒจ ๊ฐ„๊ฒฉ = (์ตœ๊ณ ๊ฐ€ - ์ตœ์ €๊ฐ€) / 8

+ ์˜ˆ์ œ (BTC/USD)

  • 64์บ”๋“ค ๋™์•ˆ ์ตœ๊ณ ๊ฐ€ = 50,000 USD
  • 64์บ”๋“ค ๋™์•ˆ ์ตœ์ €๊ฐ€ = 40,000 USD
  • ํ•œ ๋‹จ๊ณ„ ๊ฐ„๊ฒฉ = (50,000 - 40,000) / 8 = 1,250 USD
  • ๋จธ๋ ˆ์ด ๋งค์Šค ๋ ˆ๋ฒจ:
    • [0/8]P = 40,000 USD
    • [1/8]P = 41,250 USD
    • [2/8]P = 42,500 USD
    • [3/8]P = 43,750 USD
    • [4/8]P = 45,000 USDย (์ค‘์‹ฌ์„ )
    • [5/8]P = 46,250 USD
    • [6/8]P = 47,500 USD
    • [7/8]P = 48,750 USD
    • [8/8]P = 50,000 USD
3. ๋จธ๋ ˆ์ด ๋งค์Šค๋ฅผ ํ™œ์šฉํ•œ ๋งค๋งค ์ „๋žต

๋จธ๋ ˆ์ด ๋งค์Šค๋Š” ์ง€์ง€์„ ๊ณผ ์ €ํ•ญ์„  ๊ฐœ๋…์„ ํ™œ์šฉํ•˜์—ฌ ๋งค๋งค ์‹ ํ˜ธ๋ฅผ ์ƒ์„ฑํ•˜๋Š” ๋ฐ ์œ ์šฉํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

โœ… ๋งค์ˆ˜ ์ „๋žต (Buy)
  • [0/8]P(์ตœ๊ฐ•ํ•œ ์ง€์ง€์„ )์—์„œ ๋ฐ˜๋“ฑ โ†’ ๋งค์ˆ˜ ์ง„์ž…
  • [3/8]P ๋˜๋Š” [4/8]P(์ค‘์‹ฌ์„ )์—์„œ ๋ฐ˜๋“ฑ โ†’ ์ถ”๊ฐ€ ๋งค์ˆ˜
  • [5/8]P์—์„œ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ์ด ์œ ์ง€๋˜๋ฉด ๊ฐ•์„ธ ํ™•์ธ โ†’ ๋กฑ ํฌ์ง€์…˜ ์œ ์ง€
โŒ ๋งค๋„ ์ „๋žต (Sell)
  • [8/8]P(์ตœ๊ณ  ์ €ํ•ญ์„ )์—์„œ ๋ฐ˜๋ฝ โ†’ ์ˆ ์ง„์ž…
  • [5/8]P ์ดํ•˜๋กœ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ์ด ๋–จ์–ด์ง€๋ฉด ์•ฝ์„ธ ์ „ํ™˜ โ†’ ์ถ”๊ฐ€ ์ˆ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ
  • [3/8]P ์ดํ•˜์—์„œ ์ง€์†์ ์ธ ํ•˜๋ฝ โ†’ ์ถ”๊ฐ€ ํ•˜๋ฝ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ ๋†’์Œ
4. ๋จธ๋ ˆ์ด ๋งค์Šค์˜ ์žฅ์ ๊ณผ ๋‹จ์ โœ… ์žฅ์ 
  • ์ง€์ง€/์ €ํ•ญ ๊ตฌ๊ฐ„์ด ๋ช…ํ™•ํ•จ โ†’ ๋งค๋งค ํƒ€์ด๋ฐ์„ ์žก๊ธฐ ์‰ฌ์›€
  • ๊ณผ๊ฑฐ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์œผ๋กœ ๊ณ„์‚ฐ โ†’ ๋ฐฑํ…Œ์ŠคํŠธ ๋ฐ ์ „๋žต ์ตœ์ ํ™” ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ
  • ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ๊ธฐ์ˆ ์  ์ง€ํ‘œ์™€ ๋ณ‘ํ–‰ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ (RSI, MACD ๋“ฑ๊ณผ ํ•จ๊ป˜ ์‚ฌ์šฉ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ)
โŒ ๋‹จ์ 
  • ํšก๋ณด์žฅ์—์„œ๋Š” ์‹ ๋ขฐ๋„๊ฐ€ ๋‚ฎ์Œ (ํฐ ์ถ”์„ธ ์—†์ด ์ง€์ง€/์ €ํ•ญ์„ ์ง€์†์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋ŒํŒŒํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒฝ์šฐ)
  • ๊ณ ์ •๋œ ๊ณ„์‚ฐ๋ฒ• โ†’ ๋ณ€๋™์„ฑ์ด ํฐ ์‹œ์žฅ์—์„œ๋Š” ๋ ˆ๋ฒจ ์žฌ์กฐ์ •์ด ํ•„์š”ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Œ
5. ๊ฒฐ๋ก 

๋จธ๋ ˆ์ด ๋งค์Šค๋Š” ์ฐจํŠธ์˜ ์ง€์ง€์„ ๊ณผ ์ €ํ•ญ์„ ์„ ๋…ผ๋ฆฌ์ ์œผ๋กœ ๊ตฌ๋ถ„ํ•˜์—ฌ ํšจ์œจ์ ์ธ ๋งค๋งค ์ „๋žต์„ ์„ธ์šฐ๋Š” ๋ฐ ์œ ์šฉํ•œ ๋„๊ตฌ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ํŠนํžˆ ๋ณ€๋™์„ฑ์ด ํฐ ์‹œ์žฅ์—์„œ ์ ์ ˆํ•œ ์ง„์ž…/์ฒญ์‚ฐ ์ „๋žต์„ ์ˆ˜๋ฆฝํ•  ๋•Œ ๊ฐ•๋ ฅํ•œ ๋ฌด๊ธฐ๊ฐ€ ๋  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ๊ธฐ์ˆ ์  ์ง€ํ‘œ(RSI, MACD ๋“ฑ)์™€ ํ•จ๊ป˜ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•ด์•ผ ์ •ํ™•๋„๊ฐ€ ์˜ฌ๋ผ๊ฐ„๋‹ค๋Š” ์ ์„ ๊ธฐ์–ตํ•˜๋ฉด ๋”์šฑ ํšจ๊ณผ์ ์ธ ์ „๋žต์„ ๋งŒ๋“ค ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. +