ν•œλ™ν›ˆ 후보가 ꡭ민의힘 λ‹ΉλŒ€ν‘œ μ„ ν˜Έλ„ μ‘°μ‚¬μ—μ„œ κ°€μž₯ 높은 μ§€μ§€μœ¨μ„ λ³΄μ˜€λ‹€.

μΏ ν‚€λ‰΄μŠ€ 의뒰둜 여둠쑰사 μ „λ¬ΈκΈ°κ΄€ ν•œκΈΈλ¦¬μ„œμΉ˜κ°€ μ§€λ‚œ 6~8일 전ꡭ에 κ±°μ£Όν•˜λŠ” 만 18μ„Έ 이상 1000λͺ…을 λŒ€μƒμœΌλ‘œ β€˜κ΅­λ―Όμ˜νž˜ λ‹ΉλŒ€ν‘œ 후보 적합도’λ₯Ό 물은 κ²°κ³Ό ν•œλ™ν›ˆ 35.5%, 원희룑 11.5%, λ‚˜κ²½μ› 9.2%, μœ€μƒν˜„ 7.4% 순으둜 집계됐닀. 잘λͺ¨λ¦„·무응닡은 36.4%둜 λ‚˜νƒ€λ‚¬λ‹€.

ν•œ ν›„λ³΄λŠ” ν˜Έλ‚¨κΆŒ(ν•œλ™ν›ˆ 21.3% vs 원희룑 5.1% vs λ‚˜κ²½μ› 19.0% vs μœ€μƒν˜„ 10.7%)을 μ œμ™Έν•œ μ „ μ§€μ—­μ—μ„œ 높은 ν˜Έκ°λ„λ₯Ό λ‚˜νƒ€λƒˆλ‹€.


ꡭ민의힘 μ •μΉ˜ 텃밭인 λŒ€κ΅¬Β·κ²½λΆ(ν•œλ™ν›ˆ 44.1% vs 원희룑 14.2% vs λ‚˜κ²½μ› 10.0% vs μœ€μƒν˜„ 3.5%)κ³Ό λΆ€μ‚°Β·μšΈμ‚°Β·κ²½λ‚¨(ν•œλ™ν›ˆ 39.7% vs 원희룑 14.1% vs λ‚˜κ²½μ› 8.7% vs μœ€μƒν˜„ 8.0%)μ—μ„œ 높은 μ§€μ§€μœ¨μ„ κΈ°λ‘ν–ˆλ‹€.

μ„œμšΈ(ν•œλ™ν›ˆ 35.2% vs 원희룑 9.0% vs λ‚˜κ²½μ› 9.2% vs μœ€μƒν˜„ 6.2%)κ³Ό 인천·경기(ν•œλ™ν›ˆ 33.0% vs 원희룑 12.2% vs λ‚˜κ²½μ› 8.2% vs μœ€μƒν˜„ 10.1%) λ“± μˆ˜λ„κΆŒμ—μ„œλ„ ν•œ 후보에 λŒ€ν•œ μ„ ν˜Έλ„κ°€ λ†’μ•˜λ‹€.

쀑도적 μ„±ν–₯을 λ³΄μ΄λŠ” 좩청ꢌ(ν•œλ™ν›ˆ 40.0% vs 원희룑 9.1% vs λ‚˜κ²½μ› 5.8% vs μœ€μƒν˜„ 4.4%) μ—­μ‹œ ν•œ ν›„λ³΄μ˜ μ§€μ§€μœ¨μ΄ λ‹€λ₯Έ 후보보닀 μ•žμ„°λ‹€.

μ •μΉ˜ μ„±ν–₯별 λΆ„μ„μ—μ„œλ„ ν•œ ν›„λ³΄μ˜ μš°μ„Έκ°€ ν™•μ—°ν–ˆλ‹€. λ³΄μˆ˜μΈ΅μ—μ„œλŠ” μ§€μ§€μœ¨μ΄ ν•œλ™ν›ˆ 45.8%, 원희룑 15.1%, λ‚˜κ²½μ› 10.1%, μœ€μƒν˜„ 6.5%둜 μ§‘κ³„λμœΌλ©°, 쀑도측은 ν•œλ™ν›ˆ 31.9%, 원희룑 9.7%, λ‚˜κ²½μ› 7.9%, μœ€μƒν˜„ 10.3%둜 λ‚˜νƒ€λ‚¬λ‹€. μ§„λ³΄μΈ΅μ—μ„œλŠ” ν•œλ™ν›ˆ 24.6%, 원희룑 11.4%, λ‚˜κ²½μ› 9.1%, μœ€μƒν˜„ 5.2%μ˜€λ‹€.

λŒ€ν†΅λ Ή κ΅­μ • 지지별 λΆ„μ„μ—μ„œλŠ” μž˜ν•¨(ν•œλ™ν›ˆ 58.2% vs 원희룑 21.0% vs λ‚˜κ²½μ› 10.5% vs μœ€μƒν˜„ 2.4%)κ³Ό 잘λͺ»ν•¨(ν•œλ™ν›ˆ 25.5% vs 원희룑 6.8% vs λ‚˜κ²½μ› 8.7% vs μœ€μƒν˜„ 10.1%)μ—μ„œ ν•œ 후보가 κ°•μ„Έλ₯Ό λ³΄μ˜€λ‹€. λ‹€λ§Œ 잘λͺ¨λ¦„Β·λ¬΄μ‘λ‹΅μ—μ„œλŠ” ν•œλ™ν›ˆ(23.2%)κ³Ό 원희룑(17.0%)이 μ˜€μ°¨λ²”μœ„ λ‚΄ 접전을 λ²Œμ˜€λ‹€.

이번 μ„€λ¬Έμ‘°μ‚¬λŠ” κ΅¬μ‘°ν™”λœ μ„€λ¬Έμ§€λ₯Ό μ΄μš©ν•œ μœ μ„  μ „ν™”λ©΄μ ‘(6.8%), 무선 ARS(93.2%)λ₯Ό 병행해 진행됐닀. 응닡λ₯ μ€ 4.7%, ν‘œλ³Έμ˜€μ°¨λŠ” 95% μ‹ λ’°μˆ˜μ€€μ— μ˜€μ°¨λ²”μœ„ Β± 3.1%pλ‹€. ν‘œλ³Έ μΆ”μΆœμ€ μœ λ¬΄μ„  μ „ν™” RDD ν‘œλ³Έ ν”„λ ˆμž„μ—μ„œ λ¬΄μž‘μœ„ μΆ”μΆœ 방식이며 톡계보정은 2023λ…„ 3μ›” 말 ν–‰μ •μ•ˆμ „λΆ€ 주민등둝인ꡬ κΈ°μ€€ 성·연령·지역별 가쀑값 λΆ€μ—¬ λ°©μ‹μœΌλ‘œ μ΄λ€„μ‘Œλ‹€.

μžμ„Έν•œ μ‘°μ‚¬κ°œμš”μ™€ κ²°κ³ΌλŠ” ν•œκΈΈλ¦¬μ„œμΉ˜ λ˜λŠ” μ€‘μ•™μ„ κ±°μ—¬λ‘ μ‘°μ‚¬μ‹¬μ˜μœ„μ›νšŒ ν™ˆνŽ˜μ΄μ§€λ₯Ό μ°Έμ‘°ν•˜λ©΄ λœλ‹€.


μ§€μ§€μ •λ‹Ή 별 μ§ˆλ¬Έμ€ μ—†μŒ