7cec9e36ebd518986abce89545857365a7


0e9ef368f5dc3f8650bbd58b3686736f0d5e


1. ํ–ฅํ›„ 10๋…„


์ƒŒํ”„๋ž€์‹œ์Šค์ฝ”์—์„œ๋Š” ๊ฐ€์žฅ ๋จผ์ € ๋ฏธ๋ž˜๋ฅผ ๋ณผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.


์ง€๋‚œ 1๋…„ ๋™์•ˆ ํ™”๋‘๋Š” 100์–ต ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ๊ทœ๋ชจ์˜ ์ปดํ“จํ„ฐ ํด๋Ÿฌ์Šคํ„ฐ์—์„œ 1,000์–ต ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ, 1์กฐ ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ๊ทœ๋ชจ์˜ ํด๋Ÿฌ์Šคํ„ฐ๋กœ ์˜ฎ๊ฒจ์กŒ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.


6๊ฐœ์›”๋งˆ๋‹ค ์ด์‚ฌํšŒ ๊ณ„ํš์— 0์ด ์ถ”๊ฐ€ ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.


๊ทธ ์ด๋ฉด์—๋Š” ๋‚จ์€ 10๋…„ ๋™์•ˆ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ๋ชจ๋“  ์ „๋ ฅ ๊ณ„์•ฝ๊ณผ ์กฐ๋‹ฌํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ๋ชจ๋“  ๋ณ€์••๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ํ™•๋ณดํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•œ ์น˜์—ดํ•œ ๊ฒฝ์Ÿ์ด ๋ฒŒ์–ด์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.


๋ฏธ๊ตญ์˜ ๋Œ€๊ธฐ์—…์€ ์˜ค๋žซ๋™์•ˆ ๋ณด์ด์ง€ ์•Š์•˜๋˜ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ์‚ฐ์—…์˜ ํž˜์„ ๋™์›ํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด ์ˆ˜์กฐ ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ฅผ ์Ÿ์•„๋ถ€์„ ์ค€๋น„๋ฅผ ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.


AGI ๊ฒฝ์ฃผ๊ฐ€ ์‹œ์ž‘๋˜์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.


์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์ƒ๊ฐํ•˜๊ณ  ์ถ”๋ก ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ธฐ๊ณ„๋ฅผ ๋งŒ๋“ค๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

2025/26๋…„๊นŒ์ง€ ์ด ๊ธฐ๊ณ„๋Š” ๋งŽ์€ ๋Œ€ํ•™ ์กธ์—…์ƒ์„ ๋Šฅ๊ฐ€ํ•  ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

10๋…„์ด ์ง€๋‚˜๋ฉด ๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ๋‹น์‹ ์ด๋‚˜ ๋‚˜๋ณด๋‹ค ๋” ๋˜‘๋˜‘ํ•ด์งˆ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์ง„์ •ํ•œ ์˜๋ฏธ์—์„œ ์ดˆ์ง€๋Šฅ์„ ๊ฐ–๊ฒŒ ๋  ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.


๋ชจ๋‘๊ฐ€ AI์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด ์ด์•ผ๊ธฐ ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์ง€๋งŒ ์•ž์œผ๋กœ ์–ด๋–ค ์ผ์ด ์ผ์–ด๋‚ ์ง€ ํฌ๋ฏธํ•˜๊ฒŒ๋‚˜๋งˆ ์ง์ž‘ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์€ ๊ฑฐ์˜ ์—†์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.


์—”๋น„๋””์•„ ๋ถ„์„๊ฐ€๋“ค์€ ์—ฌ์ „ํžˆ 2024๋…„์ด ์ •์ ์— ๊ฐ€๊นŒ์šธ ๊ฒƒ์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

์ฃผ๋ฅ˜ ์ „๋ฌธ๊ฐ€๋“ค์€ "๋‹จ์ˆœํžˆ ๋‹ค์Œ ๋‹จ์–ด๋ฅผ ์˜ˆ์ธกํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ"์ด๋ผ๋Š” ๊ณ ์˜์ ์ธ ๋งน๋ชฉ์— ์‚ฌ๋กœ์žกํ˜€ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ๋‹จ์ง€ ๊ณผ๋Œ€ ๊ด‘๊ณ ์™€ ํ‰์†Œ๋Œ€๋กœ์˜ ์‚ฌ์—…๋งŒ์„ ๋ด…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ๊ธฐ๊ปํ•ด์•ผ ๋˜ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์ธํ„ฐ๋„ท ๊ทœ๋ชจ์˜ ๊ธฐ์ˆ  ๋ณ€ํ™”๋กœ ๋ฐ›์•„๋“ค์ด๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.


๋จธ์ง€์•Š์•„ ์„ธ์ƒ์€ ๊นจ์–ด๋‚  ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ ํ˜„์žฌ '์ƒํ™ฉ ์ธ์‹ ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ'์„ ๊ฐ–์ถ˜ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์€ ์•„๋งˆ๋„ ์ˆ˜๋ฐฑ๋ช…์— ๋ถˆ๊ณผํ•˜๋ฉฐ, ๋Œ€๋ถ€๋ถ„ ์ƒŒํ”„๋ž€์‹œ์Šค์ฝ”์™€ AI ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์†Œ์— ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

์šด๋ช…์˜ ๊ธฐ์ดํ•œ ํž˜์„ ํ†ตํ•ด ๋‚˜๋Š” ๊ทธ๋“ค ๊ฐ€์šด๋ฐ ์†ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋˜์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๋ช‡ ๋…„ ์ „๋งŒ ํ•ด๋„ ์ด ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€ ๋ฏธ์ณค๋‹ค๊ณ  ์กฐ๋กฑ๋‹นํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. (OpenAI๋ฅผ ๋งํ•˜๋Š” ๋“ฏ)

ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ์ถ”์„ธ์„ ์„ ๋ฏฟ์—ˆ๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์— ์ง€๋‚œ ๋ช‡ ๋…„ ๊ฐ„์˜ AI ๋ฐœ์ „์„ ์ •ํ™•ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ์˜ˆ์ธกํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.


์ด๋“ค์€ ์ œ๊ฐ€ ๋งŒ๋‚œ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค ์ค‘ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ๋˜‘๋˜‘ํ•œ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ์ด ๊ธฐ์ˆ ์„ ๊ตฌ์ถ•ํ•˜๋Š” ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

์•„๋งˆ๋„ ๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ์—ญ์‚ฌ์— ์ด์ƒํ•œ ๊ฐ์ฃผ๊ฐ€ ๋  ์ˆ˜๋„ ์žˆ๊ณ , ์‚ด๋ผ๋“œ๋‚˜ ์˜คํŽœํ•˜์ด๋จธ, ํ…”๋Ÿฌ์ฒ˜๋Ÿผ ์—ญ์‚ฌ์— ๋‚จ์„ ์ˆ˜๋„ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๊ทธ๋“ค์ด ๋ฏธ๋ž˜๋ฅผ ๊ฑฐ์˜ ์ •ํ™•ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋ณด๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค๋ฉด ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ํ—˜๋‚œํ•œ ์—ฌ์ •์„ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋  ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.


์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๋ณด๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ๋ง์”€๋“œ๋ฆฌ๊ฒ ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.


1bf3c028e2f206a26d81f6e44581736f62


์ „์ฒด๋‚ด์šฉ์€ ์—ฌ๊ธฐ์„œ:

https://situational-awareness.ai/


https://situational-awareness.ai/

Introduction - SITUATIONAL AWARENESS: The Decade AheadLeopold Aschenbrenner, June 2024 You can see the future first in San Francisco. Over the past year, the talk of the town has shifted from $10 billion compute clusters to $100 billion clusters to trillion-dollar clusters. Every six months another zero is added to the boardroom plans. Behind the scenes, thereโ€™s a fierce scramble tosituational-awareness.ai



Introduction - SITUATIONAL AWARENESS: The Decade AheadLeopold Aschenbrenner, June 2024 You can see the future first in San Francisco. Over the past year, the talk of the town has shifted from $10 billion compute clusters to $100 billion clusters to trillion-dollar clusters. Every six months another zero is added to the boardroom plans. Behind the scenes, thereโ€™s a fierce scramble tosituational-awareness.ai