https://docs.google.com/document/d/1rcRyR6QEgwJdY1mUfg3u9ukCQPE6vWfw213pZ4N9VwE


๊ธฐ์กด ์•ŒํŠธ๋งŒ ์ธํ„ฐ๋ทฐ ์ž ๊ฒผ๋˜๋ฐ ์ƒˆ ์ธํ„ฐ๋ทฐ ๋‚ด์šฉ ๋ˆ„๊ฐ€ ์˜ฌ๋ ค๋†จ๊ธธ๋ž˜ ์žฌ์—…ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฑฐ์‹ฌ


Is there an AI fire alarm?

Says it is an important question to ask, but is malformed. Does not think AGI will be a binary moment, no foom.

Does think we will have a warning when recursive self improvement becomes possible.


Question about his timelines:

Ref to it being a continuous transition, says 50% chance of early 2030s, says he is more pessimistic than many in OpenAI


AI ํ™”์žฌ ๊ฒฝ๋ณด๊ธฐ๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๊นŒ?

์ค‘์š”ํ•œ ์งˆ๋ฌธ์ด์ง€๋งŒ ํ˜•์‹์ด ์ž˜๋ชป๋˜์—ˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋งํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. AGI๊ฐ€ ์ด์ง„ ์ˆœ๊ฐ„์ด ๋  ๊ฒƒ์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

์žฌ๊ท€์  ์ž๊ธฐ ๊ฐœ์„ ์ด ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•ด์ง€๋ฉด ๊ฒฝ๊ณ ๋ฅผ ๋ฐ›์„ ๊ฒƒ์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๊นŒ?


๊ทธ์˜ ํƒ€์ž„๋ผ์ธ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์งˆ๋ฌธ:

2030๋…„๋Œ€ ์ดˆ๋ฐ˜์˜ 50% ํ™•๋ฅ ์€ ์ง€์†์ ์ธ ์ „ํ™˜์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ๋งํ•˜๋ฉฐ ๊ทธ๋Š” OpenAI์˜ ๋งŽ์€ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค๋ณด๋‹ค ๋” ๋น„๊ด€์ ์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ๋งํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.



AI ์ง„๋ณด์™€ ๊ณผ๊ฑฐ ๊ธฐ์ˆ  ์ง„๋ณด์˜ ์ฐจ์ด์ ์€ ๋ฌด์—‡์ž…๋‹ˆ๊นŒ?

์ธ๊ฐ„์ด ๋ณ€ํ™”์— ์ ์‘ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ์ด์•ผ๊ธฐ๊ฐ€ ๋งŽ์ง€๋งŒ ์ด ๋ณ€ํ™”๋Š” ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์–ด๋–ค ๋ณ€ํ™”๋ณด๋‹ค ํด ๊ฒƒ์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ๋งํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

์–ธ๊ธ‰๋œ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€ Codex๋ฅผ ์ข‹์•„ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ํ˜„์žฌ Codex๋Š” ๊ณง ๋‚˜์˜ฌ ๊ฒƒ์— ๋น„ํ•ด ํ˜•ํŽธ์—†๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋งํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.


He doesnt think language will be the shortest path to Agi

๊ทธ๋Š” ์–ธ์–ด๊ฐ€ agi๋กœ ๊ฐ€๋Š” ์ตœ๋‹จ ๊ฒฝ๋กœ๊ฐ€ ๋  ๊ฒƒ์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š๋Š”๋‹ค.


ํŒŒ๋ผ๋ฏธํ„ฐ ์ˆ˜๋Š” ์ž˜๋ชป๋œ ์ธก์ • ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์œผ๋กœ ํŒ๋ช…๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค(๊ทธ๋Š” ghz๊ฐ€ CPU์˜ ์†๋„์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด ์ข‹์€ ์ง€ํ‘œ๊ฐ€ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ๊ณ  ๋น„์œ ํ•จ).

๋” ๋งŽ์€ ๊ณ„์‚ฐ์„ ์ˆ˜ํ–‰ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ๋งค๊ฐœ ๋ณ€์ˆ˜ ์ˆ˜๊ฐ€ ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์„ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ์•”์‹œํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.


GPT-4๊ฐ€ ๋‚˜์˜ค๋‚˜์š”? ๋งค๊ฐœ๋ณ€์ˆ˜๋Š” ๋ช‡ ๊ฐœ์ธ๊ฐ€์š”?

์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€ ์ž‘์€ ๋ชจ๋ธ์ด ์–ผ๋งˆ๋‚˜ ์œ ๋Šฅํ•œ์ง€์— ๋†€๋ž„ ๊ฒƒ์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ๋งํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๋ชจ๋ธ์€ ๋” ๋งŽ์€ ๊ณ„์‚ฐ์ด ํ•„์š”ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ๋งค๊ฐœ๋ณ€์ˆ˜ ์ˆ˜๋Š” ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์‚ฌ๋ฌผ์„ ์ธก์ •ํ•˜๋Š” ๋ฐฉ์‹์ด ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ๊ณ  ๋งํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ํ…์ŠคํŠธ ๋ชจ๋ธ์„ ์–ป์„ ๊ฒƒ์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ๋งํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.


์ฝ”๋ฑ์Šค, AGI๋Š” ์šฐ๋ฆฌ์˜ ๊ฒฝ๋ ฅ ๊ณ„ํš์— ์–ด๋–ค ์˜ํ–ฅ์„ ๋ฏธ์นฉ๋‹ˆ๊นŒ?

์ฝ”๋“œ ๋ชฝํ‚ค ์ผ์„ํ•˜์ง€ ๋งˆ์‹ญ์‹œ์˜ค. ํฐ ์•„์ด๋””์–ด์— ์ง‘์ค‘ํ•˜์„ธ์š”. ์ ์‘๋ ฅ์ด ์žˆ์–ด์•ผ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. IQ๋กœ ์ž์‹ ์˜ ๊ฐ€์น˜๋ฅผ ์ •์˜ํ•˜์ง€ ๋งˆ์‹ญ์‹œ์˜ค.


ํ•˜๋“œ์›จ์–ด ์˜ค๋ฒ„ํ–‰์ด ์–ผ๋งˆ๋‚˜ ํฝ๋‹ˆ๊นŒ?

์—„์ฒญ๋‚œ ์–‘์˜ ์ž๋ณธ๊ณผ ๋…ธ๋ ฅ์œผ๋กœ ๊ณง AGI๋ฅผ ํ›ˆ๋ จํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ์ถฉ๋ถ„ํ•œ ์›์‹œ ์ปดํ“จํŒ…์„ ๊ฐ–๊ฒŒ ๋  ๊ฒƒ์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.


OpenAI 2021-2022์˜ ๋ชฉํ‘œ๋Š”?

๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ๋„๋‹ฌํ•˜๊ณ  ์‹ถ์€ ์„ฑ๊ณผ ์ง€ํ‘œ๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์ง€๋งŒ ๊ณต๊ฐœํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์•˜์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ธฐ๋Šฅ ์ง„ํ–‰๊ณผ ๋™๋“ฑํ•˜๊ฒŒ ์ •๋ ฌ ์ง„ํ–‰์„ ๊ฐ€์ ธ์˜ต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ํ˜„์žฌ ๊ถค๋„์— ๋งŒ์กฑํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ถค๋„๋ฅผ ์œ ์ง€ํ•˜๋Š” ๋ฐ ์—„์ฒญ๋‚œ ์–‘์˜ ์ž‘์—…์ด ํ•„์š”ํ•  ๊ฒƒ์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ๋งํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.


OpenAI์˜ Utopia๋Š” ์–ด๋–ค ๋ชจ์Šต์ธ๊ฐ€์š”?

ํ•œ ๊ฐ€์ง€ ์ ‘๊ทผ ๋ฐฉ์‹์€ UBI(๊ธฐ๋ณธ์†Œ๋“)์™€ ๊ฐ™์œผ๋ฉฐ AGI ์‹œ๊ฐ„์˜ ํƒ€์ž„ ์Šฌ๋ผ์ด์Šค๋ฅผ ์†Œ์œ ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๊ทธ๋Š” AGI๊ฐ€ ๋ชจ๋“  ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์˜ ์‚ถ์„ ๊ทน์ ์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐœ์„ ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ์ผ์—๋„ ๊ด€์‹ฌ์ด ์žˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋งํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์ด๋Ÿฌํ•œ ๋ฌธ์ œ์— ๋™์˜ํ•˜๊ณ  AGI์—๊ฒŒ ์ด๋ฅผ ์ง€์ ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๊นŒ?


Not without issues, but thinks it has been wonderful. Great and hands-off investor. Provides them with resources and capital, data, compute, custom systems,

โ€œreally get AGI.โ€


Microsoft์™€ OpenAI์˜ ๊ด€๊ณ„๋Š” ๋ฌด์—‡์ž…๋‹ˆ๊นŒ?

๋ฌธ์ œ๊ฐ€ ์—†๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์€ ์•„๋‹ˆ์ง€๋งŒ ํ›Œ๋ฅญํ•˜๋‹ค๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์œ„๋Œ€ํ•˜๊ณ  ์†์žฌ์ฃผ๊ฐ€ ์—†๋Š” ํˆฌ์ž์ž. ๋ฆฌ์†Œ์Šค์™€ ์ž๋ณธ, ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ, ์ปดํ“จํŒ…, ๋งž์ถคํ˜• ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์„ ์ œ๊ณตํ•˜์—ฌ

"์ •๋ง AGI๋ฅผ ์–ป์„ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค."

by Gpt-4 5์›”๊ฒŒ์ด