https://semianalysis.com/2024/12/11/scaling-laws-o1-pro-architecture-reasoning-training-infrastructure-orion-and-claude-3-5-opus-failures/#scaling-sings-odes-to-the-greatest-scaling-law-of-computing-moore%e2%80%99s-law

๊ธฐ๋ณธ ๋ชจ๋ธ์ด ์ž‘์—…์„ ํŒ๋‹จํ•˜๋Š” ๋ฐ ๋” ์ข‹์„์ˆ˜๋ก, ํ•™์Šต์„ ์œ„ํ•œ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ ์„ธํŠธ๊ฐ€ ๋” ์ข‹์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์—ฌ๊ธฐ์—๋Š” ๊ณ ์œ ํ•œ ์Šค์ผ€์ผ๋ง ๋ฒ•์น™์ด ๋‚ด์žฌ๋˜์–ด ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ด๊ฒƒ์ด ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ "์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ํด๋กœ๋“œ 3.5 ์†Œ๋„คํŠธ"๋ฅผ ์–ป์€ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. Anthropic์€ ํด๋กœ๋“œ 3.5 ์˜คํ‘ธ์Šค์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ํ•™์Šต์„ ๋งˆ์ณค๊ณ , ์ ์ ˆํ•œ ์Šค์ผ€์ผ๋ง์„ ํ†ตํ•ด ์ข‹์€ ์„ฑ๊ณผ๋ฅผ ๋ณด์˜€์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค(๊ทธ๋ ‡์ง€ ์•Š๋‹ค๊ณ  ์ฃผ์žฅํ•˜๋Š” ์Šค์ผ€์ผ๋ง ๋ถ€์ธ๋ก ์ž๋“ค์€ ๋ฌด์‹œํ•˜์„ธ์š”. ์ด๊ฒƒ์€ FUD์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค).

ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ Anthropic์€ ์ด๋ฅผ ์ถœ์‹œํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์•˜์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ทธ ์ด์œ ๋Š” Anthropic์ด ๊ณต๊ฐœ์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ถœ์‹œํ•˜๋Š” ๋Œ€์‹  Claude 3.5 Opus๋ฅผ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜์—ฌ ํ•ฉ์„ฑ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋ฅผ ์ƒ์„ฑ ํ•˜๊ณ  ๋ณด์ƒ ๋ชจ๋ธ๋ง์„ ํ†ตํ•ด ์‚ฌ์šฉ์ž ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ์™€ ํ•จ๊ป˜ Claude 3.5 Sonnet์„ ํฌ๊ฒŒ ๊ฐœ์„ ํ–ˆ๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ถ”๋ก  ๋น„์šฉ์€ ํฌ๊ฒŒ ๋ณ€ํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์•˜์ง€๋งŒ ๋ชจ๋ธ์˜ ์„ฑ๋Šฅ์€ ๋ณ€ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. 3.5 Opus๋ฅผ ์ถœ์‹œํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด ๋น„์šฉ ์ธก๋ฉด์—์„œ ๊ฒฝ์ œ์ ์œผ๋กœ ํƒ€๋‹นํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์€๋ฐ, ํ•ด๋‹น 3.5 Opus์—์„œ ์ถ”๊ฐ€ ์‚ฌํ›„ ํ•™์Šต์„ ํ†ตํ•ด 3.5 Sonnet์„ ์ถœ์‹œํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ๊ณผ ๋น„๊ตํ–ˆ์„ ๋•Œ ์™œ 3.5 Opus๋ฅผ ์ถœ์‹œํ• ๊นŒ์š”?

๋” ๋งŽ์€ ํ•ฉ์„ฑ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์œผ๋ฉด ๋” ๋‚˜์€ ๋ชจ๋ธ์ด ๋‚˜์˜ต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋” ๋‚˜์€ ๋ชจ๋ธ์€ ๋” ๋‚˜์€ ํ•ฉ์„ฑ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋ฅผ ์ œ๊ณตํ•˜๊ณ  ์„ ํ˜ธ๋„๋ฅผ ํ•„ํ„ฐ๋งํ•˜๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ํ‰๊ฐ€ํ•˜๋Š” ๋ฐ ๋” ๋‚˜์€ ํŒ๋‹จ์ž ์—ญํ• ์„ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ํ•ฉ์„ฑ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ ์‚ฌ์šฉ์—๋Š” ๋” ์ž‘์€ ์Šค์ผ€์ผ๋ง ๋ฒ•์น™์ด ๋งŽ์ด ๋‚ด์žฌ๋˜์–ด ์žˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์ด๋ฅผ ๋ชจ๋‘ ํ•ฉ์ณ ๋” ๋‚˜์€ ๋ชจ๋ธ์„ ๋” ๋นจ๋ฆฌ ๊ฐœ๋ฐœํ•˜๋„๋ก ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.


๋งˆ์ง€๋ง‰์—๋ญ”๋œป? O1๊ฐ™์ด์ถ”๋ก ๋ชจ๋ธ๋ถ™ํžˆ๊ณ  3.5์˜คํ‘ธ์Šค์ถœ์‹œํ•˜๋Š”๊ฑด๊ฐ€?