https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/230109_Cancian_FirstBattle_NextWar.pdf?WdEUwJYWIySMPIr3ivhFolxC_gZQuSOQ


1. Taiwanese forces must hold the line. Recommendation: Strengthen Taiwanese ground forces. Because some Chinese forces will always land on the island, Taiwanese ground forces must be able to contain any beachhead and then counterattack forcefully as Chinese logistics weaken. However, the Taiwanese ground forces have severe weaknesses. Therefore, Taiwan must fill its ranks and conduct rigorous, combined arms training. Ground forces must become the center of Taiwan’s defense effort. 


2. There is no “Ukraine model” for Taiwan. Recommendation: In peacetime, the United States and Taiwan must work together to provide Taiwan with the weapons it needs; in wartime, if the United States decides to defend Taiwan, U.S. forces must quickly engage in direct combat. In the Ukraine war, the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) have not sent troops directly into combat but have sent massive amounts of equipment and supplies to Ukraine. Russia has been unable to interdict this overland flow. However, the “Ukraine model” cannot be replicated in Taiwan because China can isolate the island for weeks or even months. Taiwan must start the war with everything it needs. Further, delays and half measures by the United States would make the defense harder, increase U.S. casualties, allow China to create a stronger lodgment, and raise the risk of escalation. 


3. The United States must be able to use its bases in Japan for combat operations. Recommendation: Deepen diplomatic and military ties with Japan. While other allies (e.g., Australia and South Korea) are important in the broader competition with China and may play some role in the defense of Taiwan, Japan is the linchpin. Without the use of U.S. bases in Japan, U.S. fighter/attack aircraft cannot effectively participate in the war. 


4. The United States must be able to strike the Chinese fleet rapidly and en masse from outside the Chinese defensive zone. Recommendation: Increase the arsenal of long-range anti-ship cruise missiles.



요약하면 

1. 대만군은 무조건 육군도배 + 비대칭 올빵 

이 새끼들 비싼 전투기, 함정 욕심내지 못하게 작작 시켜라 


2. 일본이 (미군의 희생을 줄이기 위해) 중요하다

호주, 한국은 별로 도움도 안되고 기대할게 못된다. 일본 얼르고 달래고 말잘듣게 해라


3. 장거리 폭격기+ 스탠드오프 전력 강화에 보다 신경쓰자 

중국 가까이 있으면 조땐다 


그런데 미국입장에서 해군 함정보다 전투기 손실이 막심하네 

무엇보다 지상 주기중 파괴가 90%라니 비싼 스텔스기로 도배하는 의미가 너무 없는듯