https://www.semafor.com/article/06/12/2023/why-ukraines-counteroffensive-just-might-work


https://www.semafor.com/article/06/12/2023/why-ukraines-counteroffensive-just-might-work

An expert explains why Ukraineโ€™s counteroffensive just might work | SemaforAfter months of anticipation, Ukraineโ€™s counter-offensive against Russia appears to be slowly, grudgingly, taking root.www.semafor.com


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์›Œ์‹ฑํ„ด์— ์žˆ๋Š” ์ „๋žต ๋ฐ ๊ตญ์ œ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ ์„ผํ„ฐ(CSIS)์˜ ๊ตญ์ œ ์•ˆ๋ณด ํ”„๋กœ๊ทธ๋žจ ์ฑ…์ž„์žย Seth Jones



1. ๋Ÿฌ์‹œ์•„๊ตฐ์€ ์ง€๋‚˜์น˜๊ฒŒ ๋„“์€ ๋ฐฉ์–ด์„ ์— ๋‚ฎ์€ ํ›ˆ๋ จ๋„์™€ ์‚ฌ๊ธฐ์˜ ๋ณ‘๋ ฅ์„ ๋ฐฐ์น˜ํ•ด๋‘ 

2. ์šฐํฌ๋ผ์ด๋‚˜๋Š” ์•ฝ 3~4๋‹ฌ๊ฐ„์˜ ๋ฐ˜๊ฒฉ์ž‘์ „์„ ํ†ตํ•ด ์ž๊ตญ์˜ ์ ๋ น๋‹นํ•œ ์˜ํ† ์—์„œ 10~20%์ •๋„ ์ˆ˜๋ณตํ•˜๋ฉด ์ค€์ˆ˜ํ•œ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ์ž„. ๋งŒ์•ฝ 50% ์ˆ˜๋ณตํ•˜๋ฉด ๋Œ€๋ฐ•์ž„.

3. 3~4๋‹ฌ ์ด์ƒ ์ง€์ฒดํ•˜๋ฉด ๊ทธ๊ฑด ๋Ÿฌ์‹œ์•„๊ฐ€ ๋ฐ”๋ผ๋Š” ์†Œ๋ชจ์ „์ด๋ผ๋Š” ๋œป

4. ์šฐํฌ๋ผ์ด๋‚˜๋Š” ์ง€๊ธˆ ์ƒ๊ฐ๋ณด๋‹ค ๊ตผ๋œจ๊ฒŒ ์›€์ง์ด๋Š” ์ค‘. ๋” ๋นจ๋ฆฌ ์ง„๊ฒฉํ•ด์•ผ ํ•จ

5. ์„œ๋ฐฉ์ด ATACMS๋ฅผ ์ฃผ๋ฉด ํ™˜์ƒ์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋„์›€์ด ๋  ๊ฒƒ์ด๋‹ค.