http://cafe.daum.net/NTDS/5q4/670
2차대전이 끝나고 일본을 점령한 미군이 일본의 문서들을 뒤져 보니 1941년 12월 진주만 기습 이전에 일본이 했던 워게임에서 기습에 참가하는 항모 6척 중에서 2척이 (아카기형 1척과 소류형 1척) 격침되는 것으로 가정한 것을 알게 되었네요 (아래 문서는 1947년에 작성).
이 워게임에서 이토 해군소장은 아예 하와이에 상륙하는 것까지 생각했지만, 쿠로지마 해군대령은 보급이 거의 불가능하다며 반대해서 쿠로지마의 의견이 받아들여졌습니다.
참고로 미드웨이 해전 전에 일본해군이 한 워게임에서 주사위 굴려 아카기와 카가 2척이 9발 맞고 격침된 것으로 판정되자 연합함대 참모장이 맘대로 9발을 3발로 줄여 카가만 격침되도록 결과를 바꾼 것은 유명한 얘기입니다.
The final games reportedly got underway on 2 September 1941, with most of the high ranking officers participating on one of the three teams that were organized: the “N” (Nippon) Team, “A” (America) Team, and “E” (England) Team.
During the afternoon of 3 September, 50 copies of an outline of conditions under which the games were to be held were prepared and contained the heart of Operation Order No. 1. These plans must have been under development for several months, as extensive preliminary planning was indicated.
On 5 September, it is known that Pearl Harbor plans were under discussion and the Japs apparently expected to catch all major U.S. Fleet units in the Pacific in Pearl Harbor, as well as units which they believed were recently transferred from the Atlantic. “N” Team expected to lose one-third of the units participating in the attack on Hawaii and one Akagi-class aircraft carrier and one Soryu-class aircraft carrier were estimated as sunk.
On 6 and 7 September, “N” Team debated the best means of assaulting Pearl Harbor. Captain Kurojima (Deputy Chief of Staff) and Rear Admiral Ito (Chief of Staff)53 differed as to the practicability of conducting an amphibious assault on Hawaii. Ito was in favor of an early landing but Kurojima won the discussion by pointing out insuperable logistic problems.
https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1946v08/d351
http://cafe.daum.net/NTDS/5q4/670